In a dramatic turn of events, France’s far-right National Rally (RN) is poised to win the upcoming snap election, though it will likely fall short of an absolute majority. This forecast follows President Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected decision to dissolve parliament after his party’s significant loss in the European Parliament elections.
The dissolution has set the stage for snap elections, with the first round scheduled for June 30 and the run-off on July 7. According to a recent poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, Marine Le Pen’s RN could secure between 235 to 265 seats in the National Assembly, a substantial increase from its current 88 seats. However, this falls short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority.
Macron’s centrist alliance faces a stark decline, with predictions suggesting their representation could be halved from 250 to between 125 and 155 seats. Meanwhile, left-wing parties might collectively secure 115 to 145 seats, though they are likely to run independently.
Despite RN’s projected success, forming a government remains uncertain. Potential scenarios include a coalition of mainstream parties or a hung parliament. Macron’s dissolution of parliament, a bold move aimed at reshaping his political fortunes, has already had immediate economic repercussions, with the euro dropping and French stocks and government bonds taking a hit.
RN’s recent electoral gains underscore a growing dissatisfaction with Macron’s leadership, particularly regarding his approach to immigration, economic policy, and security. Although Macron would retain his presidency and control over defense and foreign policy, an RN majority in parliament would significantly limit his influence on domestic issues.
RN leaders, including Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, are actively seeking alliances to bolster their position. Talks are underway with the smaller far-right Reconquete party and members of the conservative Les Republicains. Meanwhile, the divided left-wing parties are also exploring possible collaborations to present a united front.
This political upheaval comes at a critical time for France, just before the country hosts the Paris Olympics in late July. The outcome of the snap election will not only shape the immediate political landscape but will also have long-term implications for France’s position within the European Union and its domestic policies.
As France braces for this pivotal election, the central question remains: Can RN translate its rising popularity into effective governance? The forthcoming election will test the resilience of France’s political institutions and the electorate’s appetite for change.